10 MAR 2011
But still don't get it.
Here is Paul Goodman on Conservative home
, trying to analyze what on earth is going on in the polls as the UKIP vote share doubles and more since the general election amongst the polling organisations. This of course was underlined by the Barnsley election, but as Goodman points out more perceptive eyes had spotted the trend before last week.
An Angus Reid post-Barnsley poll has shown it at 7%. Populus has estimated it at 5%. The estimable Anthony Wells of YouGov spotted rising support for UKIP as early as January. At the last election, UKIP came in at 3%.
He cites three key reasons for UKIP's rise.
1) The Lib Dems movement in to coalition has killed their outsider tag, thus leaving UKIP the field of the anti party party.
2) The BNP is in an utter mess.
3) Nigel Farage
There is truth in all of this though I suspect, and given the Barnsley study by Survation point 2 is marginal. Why chase a few thousand votes when there are millions to be won?
Where Goodman, and so many others of his ilk fall down is that they cannot get their heads around what is happening out there. There has been a media belief - at times abetted by people in UKIP, that the party is fixated on soley the EU and Immigration. That is just not the case, and people are beggining to wake up to it. However the Westminster bubble is, as always behind the curve.
Read entire article