07 MAR 2011
By Harry Aldridge | Independence Home
So much to report on in just a few days!
Last Thursday night (well, early Friday morning but whatever), UKIP scooped a massive victory by jumping 3 places to come 2nd in the Barnsley Central by-election with 12.2% of the vote.
The most interesting aspect to the result, however, was where UKIP’s vote came from. Figures from pollsters Survation
before the election indicated Lib-Dem voters switching at 11%, Tory switching at 10% and Labour switching at 3%. Guido has calculated that this translates into the following breakdown of UKIP’s final vote…
UKIP on 7%
Meanwhile, PoliticalBetting reports on an Angus Reid poll
showing that nationally that 6% of 2010 Tory voters, 4% of Lib-Dems voters and 2% of Labour voters have switched support to UKIP.
What Mike Smithson doesn’t mention is that the same table showing these switcher figures
has UKIP polling 7%!
YouGov has UKIP on the 4% or 5% level which has been consistent for a few months, but the AR figure is interesting.
The UKIP spring conference kicked off in Scarborough on Friday night in jubilant spirit following the Barnsley result. Saturday had a packed schedule, but one of the highlights was the announcement of councillor defections.
With our general healthy polling the party faithful are buoyed up and hopeful for a good splash on May 5th. While I anticipate we will win a few council seats across the country, the real interesting story will actually be the progression of the party insofar as how many 2nd and 3rd places do we secure, and do we create any 2-way or 3-way marginal wards that could be won next time?
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