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Global
• 30 NOV 2011
First Post
Iranians continue to pretend they are not under attack. But about those rockets landing in Galilee?
WHAT'S HAPPENED?
It has emerged that an Iranian nuclear facility in the city of Isfahan was rocked by a massive explosion on Monday afternoon, 24 hours before the British Embassy fracas in Tehran stole the headlines. The blast caused tower blocks to shake in the city and a large pall of smoke to hang over the uranium conversion facility on the outskirts of Isfahan, according to The Times.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
This is the second time in the space of 20 days that such a site has been hit by a mysterious blast. On November 12 a massive explosion at the Bid Ganeh missile base on the outskirts of Tehran killed up to 30 members of the Revolutionary Guard, including General Hassan Moghaddam, the architect of Iran's missile programme.
The latest incident suggests that Iran's nuclear facilities are now coming under a concerted attack. The question is whether Israeli forces had a hand in either blast.
An Israeli intelligence source has told The Times that there was "no doubt" that the plant at Isfahan was struck deliberately on Monday and that the attack had "caused damage to the facilities [there], particularly to the elements we believe were involved in the storage of raw materials". The source refused to say whether Israel had been involved.
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See also:
Iran attack video: UK embassy stormed in Tehran (Video, RT)
Iran regrets some protesters' actions (PressTV)
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CO2 Scam Blog
• 30 NOV 2011
David Whitehouse | GWGF
Once again, for political reasons, the Met Office is “jumping the gun” and drawing conclusions about the global annual temperature of 2011 before all the data has come in. It is also erroneously saying that even with a globally cooling La Nina event 2011 is a record year.
Reported in the Times today (paywall) and in the Guardian are a series of statements prepared by the UK Met Office that are a masterclass of spin in the use of statistics. The Met Office Press release is here.
The Times: World temperatures still rising (as spring daffodils flower in November). Hannah Devlin, Science Correspondent:
Temperatures across the world are continuing to rise as predicted by climate change scientists, according to the latest global figures released by the Met Office.
The figures, timed to coincide with the UN climate conference in South Africa, show that this year is likely to be the eleventh warmest on record. The average global temperature for the first ten months of 2011 was 14.36C (57.85F), 0.36C above the long-term average.
Although cooler than last year, scientists said this is explained by a weather phenomenon called La Niña, which causes a temporary cooling of the global climate.
When 2011 is compared with previous La Niña years, it ranks as the warmest since records began in 1850. Peter Stott, from the Met Office, said: “This year we have seen a very persistent and strong La Niña, which brings cooler water to the surface of the Pacific Ocean. This has a global impact on weather and temperatures, and is one of the key reasons why this year does not figure as highly as 2010 in the rankings.”
He added that the Met Office stood by a previous prediction that half the years in this decade would be warmer globally than 1998, the warmest year to date.
Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, which worked with the Met Office on the figures, said that the records provided “overwhelming” evidence that the climate has warmed, but that not every year would be warmer than the last.
There is a great deal of misrepresentation in this article. Somehow its twisted logic concludes that even as 2011 turns out to be a rather cool year, as it admits probably the 11th warmest on record taking us back to the temperatures in the 1990’s before the recent warmest decade on record, somehow the world’s temperature continues to rise as expected.
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EU News
• 29 NOV 2011
The eurozone sovereign debt crisis has cost the UK almost £15bn in lost economic activity, according to the Governor of the Bank of England.
By Philip Aldrick | The Telegraph
Asked by the Treasury Select Committee (TSC) to estimate the damage caused to the UK by ongoing problems in the single currency area, Sir Mervyn King said the "bulk" of the Bank's growth forecast downgrade in the past three months of "over one percentage point" could be attributed to the crisis. A percentage point of growth is equivalent to about £15bn.
Andrew Tyrie, chairman of the TSC, said the Governor's comments "made clear that the bulk of loss of economic growth is attributable to eurozone instability". He added: "This reinforces the need to re-orientate exports away from a weak European market to stronger demand in emerging markets."
The Bank cut its growth forecast for 2012 from 2.2pc to 0.9pc in this month's Inflation Report.
Sir Mervyn said: "Growth has been revised down by over one percentage point. The bulk of that can be attributed directly or indirectly to the changing in perception of the circumstances in the euro area – directly through exports from the UK to the eurozone, indirectly through lower asset prices and lower wealth and funding costs to our banks."
Read entire article
See also:
Bank of England governor tells Britain to brace for devastating financial crisis as OECD warns country is facing double dip recession (Mail Online)
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EU News
• 29 NOV 2011
All key measures of the money supply in the eurozone contracted in October with drastic falls across parts of southern Europe, raising the risk of severe recession over coming months.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard | The Telegraph
The three main gauges – M1, M2, and M3 – have each begun to decline in absolute terms after slowing sharply over the Autumn.
The broad M3 measure tracked closely by the European Central Bank as an early warning indicator shrank last month by €59bn to €9.78 trillion, a sign that Europe's long-feared credit squeeze is underway as banks retrench to meet tougher capital requirements.
"This is very worrying," said Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research. "What it shows is that the implosion of the banking system on the periphery is now outweighing any growth left in the core. We are seeing the destruction of money and it is a clear warning of serious trouble over the next six months."
"This is the first sign of an emerging credit crunch," said James Nixon from Societe Generale. Banks cut their balance sheets by €79bn in October, while mortage lending saw the biggest drop since December 2008.
Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors said "narrow" M1 money – which includes cash and overnight deposits, and signals short-term spending plans – shows an alarming split between North and South.
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EU News
• 29 NOV 2011
By Leigh Phillips | EUobserver
BRUSSELS - A bleak assessment from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on Monday (28 November) warned that the eurozone crisis threatens the globe with a serious recession if left unresolved.
"The euro area crisis remains the key risk to the world economy," the Paris-based economic think-tank said in its biennial report, adding that the eurozone debt train crash could result in global liquidity seizing up.
"If not addressed, recent contagion to countries thought to have relatively solid public finances could massively escalate economic disruption. Pressures on bank funding and balance sheets increase the risk of a credit crunch."
The body cut its projections for growth across all OECD or developed countries from 2.3 percent in its last report to 1.6 percent in 2012, while EU states dropped in its estimations from two percent to 0.2 percent for next year.
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EU News
• 29 NOV 2011
EurActiv
Eurozone finance ministers are to agree today (29 November) the details of bolstering their bailout fund to help prevent contagion in bond markets, under pressure from the United States and ratings agencies to staunch a two-year-old debt crisis.
Documents obtained by Reuters on Sunday showed the detailed guidelines for the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) were ready for approval of the Eurogroup (see background), opening the way for new operations and multiplying the fund's effective size.
The documents spell out rules for EFSF intervention on the primary and secondary bond markets, for extending precautionary credit lines to governments, leveraging its firepower and its investment and funding strategies.
"I would expect we will be in a position to approve the guidelines at a political level," a eurozone official involved in the preparations for the ministers' meeting said.
The EFSF guidelines will clear the way for the €440 billion facility to attract cash from private and public investors to its co-investment funds in coming weeks.
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EU News
• 29 NOV 2011
ECB's Approach Adds to Pressure on Euro-Zone Governments
By Brian Blackstone | WSJ
FRANKFURT—The European Central Bank has showed no sign of abandoning its conservative approach to buying government bonds in recent days, keeping the pressure on euro-zone governments to take the lead in stemming the region's debt crisis.
Euro-zone governments are privately—and sometimes publicly—clamoring for the ECB to intervene massively in financial markets and stop the rise in some governments' borrowing costs to ruinous levels. But bank officials gave no hint Monday of an imminent escalation of its limited bond purchases, despite heightened fears that time is running out for the euro zone to avoid a meltdown of its sovereign debt markets that could tear Europe's single currency apart.
The central bank purchased €8.6 billion ($11.5 billion) in bonds last week, the largest amount in three weeks but well below what many policy makers say is necessary to calm markets.
"The ECB should buy bonds and set a limit to yields, or a floor to bond value, so that markets know there's a counterparty ready to trade at that level," said Pier Carlo Padoan, chief economist of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
The Paris-based OECD, a club of developed and nearly developed countries, said Monday that it expects a "mild recession" in the euro zone. It called the euro-zone debt crisis "the key risk to the world economy" that could "massively escalate economic disruption" if not resolved.
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EU News
• 29 NOV 2011
Plans for greater fiscal union in the eurozone buoyed markets as investors dared to hope that leaders are nearing radical action to solve the debt crisis.
By Emma Rowley | The Telegraph
The FTSE 100 climbed 2.9pc to close at 5,312.76 on reports that Germany and France want to fast-track a "stability union", which would involve much tighter oversight of euro members' finances. France's CAC 40 gained 5.5pc and Germany's DAX 4.6pc.
Paris and Berlin are prepared to pursue a separate agreement outside the EU treaty in order to hurry attempts to enforce fiscal discipline, according to EU officials. The goal is to calm markets before hundreds of billions of euro government debt must be refinanced early next year.
However, Finland and Luxembourg spoke out against the idea of the treaty being sidelined.
Berlin denied reports it is working on issuing joint "elite" bonds with its five fellow eurozone members who share a top-notch "AAA" credit rating, in a plan to prop up debt-laden euro states.
The International Monetary Fund likewise rebuffed speculation it will offer Italy a €600bn (£516bn) lifeline, but the prospect still cheered investors. "It [the denial] hasn't dented market sentiment – no smoke without fire, hey?" said Katherine Brooks, research director at Forex.com.
Read entire article
See also:
US working to resolve euro crisis, Obama tells summit (Irish Times)
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EU News
• 29 NOV 2011
Some see Germany's Federal Constitutional Court as as a guardian of democracy in the euro crisis, others see it as an obstacle to rescuing the currency. Now members of Chancellor Merkel's ruling conservatives want to lessen its power by amending the constitution -- to remove its jurisdiction over European issues.
By Dietmar Hipp | Der Spiegel
German Federal Constitutional Court judge Udo Di Fabio only has a few weeks to go before he retires on Dec. 19. The former governor of the western state of Saarland, Peter Müller, was elected as his successor by the Bundesrat, Germany's upper legislative chamber representing the interest of states, last Friday.
But before he leaves, di Fabio, responsible for European issues at Germany's highest court, will have to finalize two sensitive rulings. His panel of judges will deliberate on Tuesday and Wednesday this week on two complaints submitted by the Bundestag, the federal parliament, affecting the relationship between the parliament and the government.
The judges must decide how heavily members of parliament are to be involved when the government once again tries to rescue Europe.
But behind the scenes, much more is at stake: the loss of power of the Constitutional Court in itself. The government and the court are locked in one of their biggest power struggles to date. One judge at the court described it as a "latent constitutional crisis." The government, he said, was trying to free itself of the restraints imposed on it by the constitution, and by the court.
The president of the court, Andreas Vosskühle expressed it a little more cautiously. The perception of his court was at present, he said "ambivalent in parts."
On the one hand, the court had been credited for ensuring that European unity remained on a secure legal and democratic footing, he said. But on the other hand, it "is seen by some as an obstacle in overcoming the current crisis."
Court May Lose Power to Rule on EU Matters
As a result, efforts underway in Berlin to change the constitution are being viewed with mixed feelings in Karlsruhe, where the court is located -- because they are aimed at opening up greater room for maneuver in future dealings with the court.
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UK Independence Party in the European Parliament, Europe of Freedom and Democracy group, Rue Wiertz, 60 - 1047 Brussels
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